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Rajoni

The dream of a 'greater Serbia' with Serbian-Russian scenarios, DW analysis: Dodik plans to secede from the Bosnian state

The dream of a 'greater Serbia' with Serbian-Russian scenarios, DW

On June 11, 2024, what happened, what the leader of the Bosnian Serbs, Milorad Dodik, had been waiting for years: On behalf of Moscow, the Russian ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Igor Kalabucov, opened a branch of his embassy in the epicenter of Dodik, in Banja Luke. During the ceremony, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also spoke through a video link.

On Bosnian television, Kalabucov twice threatened with the "Ukraine scenario", in case Sarajevo continues to get closer to NATO, he did this even after the Russian invasion in Bosnia and Herzegovina, in Republika Srpska (RS). dominated by Serbs, whose leadership under President Milorad Dodik plans to secede from the common Bosnian state and merge with the Republic of Serbia. This would make the "Serbian dream" come true, i.e. Greater Serbia of the former Yugoslavia uniting in one state. This was the political goal of the former president of Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic, who in the 1990s tried to realize it by military means - he was the main initiator of four wars in which almost 150,000 people lost their lives and over four million became refugees. . Only when NATO intervened in 1995 in Bosnia and in 1999 in Kosovo through fierce airstrikes against Serbian aggression did the Serbian forces surrender.

About 30 years later, the Serbian government under President Aleksandar Vu?i?, and encouraged by Moscow's aggressive policy, has revived the "ghost of Greater Serbia", considered until recently as forgotten, now using the concept of "Serbian world" (Srpski svet ), according to Vladimir Putin's model with the "Russian world" (Russki mir). A number of former supporters of Milosevic are back in office, among them the Minister of the Interior Ivica Dacic, who sometimes describes the Germans as "genocidal".

Common Serbian holiday

Vucic was once the Minister of Information and a leading member of the radical Serbian party of convicted war criminal Vojislav Seselj, whose paramilitary forces committed countless war crimes in Croatia and Bosnia. In July 1995 – in the days of the Srebrenica genocide – he demanded in the Belgrade parliament that for every Serb killed in Bosnia, 100 Bosnian Muslims be killed. Until today, the president of Serbia has not apologized for this.

It is interesting, on the other hand, that today the Russian Telegram channel with influence like "Rybar", which spreads pro-Russian war propaganda and whose author Michail Svintchuk is under EU sanctions, opened a "media school" in Serbia in the spring of 2024 and in RS.

Më 8 qershor Vuçiq dhe Dodik në Beograd mbajtën një mbledhje të përbashkët të qeverive të Serbisë dhe të Republika Srpska nën moton “një popull, një mbledhje: Serbia dhe Srpska” – me Srpska nënkuptohet RS. Në këtë “asamble panserbe” Dodik erdhi direkt nga Moska, ku ai pritet vazhdimisht përzemërsisht nga presidenti Vladimir Putin dhe ministri i Jashtëm Sergej Lavrov. Në një mesazh përshëndetjeje Lavrov tha: “Bashkë me popujt e tjerë liridashës ne do të ndërtojmë një rend të ri botëror.” Vuçiç më parë pati thënë, se populli serb është i bashkuar dhe ndahet vetëm prej lumit Drina. Asambleja vendosi, që në të ardhmen të kremtohet bashkërisht festa kombëtare serbe më 15 shkurt në Serbi dhe në RS.

Garanci stabiliteti?

Në Perëndim duket se të paktën qeveria gjermane e ka kuptuar seriozitetin e gjendjes, sepse zëdhënësi i Ministrisë së Jashtme, asamblenë e Beogradit e komentoi si “thënë në mënyrë të moderuar, shumë shqetësuese dhe të dëmshme për Bosnjen dhe Hercegovinën, për Serbinë dhe për të gjitha vendet e Ballkanit Perëndimor”.

Të tilla fjalë kaq të qarta ndërkohë nuk janë të vetëkuptueshme në Perëndim, sepse shumë politikanë në BE e madje edhe disa në qeverinë e SHBA-së tek Vuçiçi shohin një “garantues stabiliteti”, pikërisht, ashtu sikurse e shihte Perëndimi asokohe deri më 1999 ish-shefin e Vuçiqit, Millosheviçin si “spirancë stabiliteti” në Ballkanin Perëndimor. Vështirë të kuptohet kjo megjithatë në sfondin e faktit, se përfaqësuesi i lartë ndërkombëtar për Bosnje dhe Hercegovinën, Christian Schmidt, detyra e të cilit është mbrojtja e Bosnjës dhe mbrojtja e Marrëveshjes së Paqes të Dejtonit, në përgjithësi është mjaft i tërhequr.

Pasivitet i përfaqësuesit të lartë

Gjykata Kushtetuese boshnjake më 9 janar, e shpalli si antiligjore ditën e themelimit të Republika Srpska në vitin 1992, – duke e ndaluar ditën secesioniste të festës dhe paradën e paraushtarakëve. Megjithatë kjo festë kremtohet dhe as që perceptohet nga përfaqësuesi i lartë Schmidt, organizata të tjera dhe zyra e përfaqësuesit të lartë. Kjo pavarësisht faktit që udhëheqja boshnjako-serbe në këtë ditë bën sikur, RS të ishte një shtet më vete, ashtu si edhe krahinat separatiste ukrainase Luhansk dhe Donezk bashkimi i të cilave me Federatën Ruse në shtator 2023 nuk është njohur në nivel ndërkombëtar. Schmidt rezervohet të kritikojë edhe Vuçiçin apo qeverinë e tij, pa të cilat Dodik nuk do të kishte kaq shumë pushtet.

Ky pasivitet i Schmidtit i shkon mjaft për shtat palës nacionaliste serbe. Edhe gjatë një vizite së fundi tek presidenti francez Emmanuel Macron Vuçiç tematizoi çështjen e mbylljes së funksionit të përfaqësuesit të lartë për Bosnjën dhe Hercegovinën. Por pavarësisht dobësisë së Schmidt-it, posti i tij është “linja e fundit mbrojtëse” e shtetit të Bosnjës dhe Hercegovinës.

Lule në varrin e Stalinit

It is unclear whether the West and Schmidt are becoming more aware of the looming conflict in Bosnia, and if they do, they must finally act. It is also unclear, if the USA really, as they have declared, will protect Bosnia as a state, in the event that Donald Trump will be president in the future. One thing is certain: If Belgrade and Banja Luka announce their union with Moscow's blessing, then it will be too late.

As for who are the guarantors of stability in Southeast Europe, this can sometimes be read in some seemingly small, but very significant examples. Such as a gesture in Moscow by Deputy Prime Minister Vulin, who was also an influential state functionary during Milosevic's time and, in recent years, the head of the secret service and minister of defense. On June 11, Vulin in the Kremlin bowed respectfully before the bust of mass murderer Josef Stalin, placing flowers on his grave./DW