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Rajoni

The war in the Balkans is about to break out, the Swiss newspaper raises the alarm and reveals why the Serbs are "rubbing their hands", November 5 will be the key date, here are the behind the scenes

The war in the Balkans is about to break out, the Swiss newspaper raises the

"What if Donald Trump wins?", this is the question in the title of the analysis published by "Neue Zürcher Zeitung" and in the subtitle the Swiss newspaper offers the answer: "A war in the Balkans would be more likely than it is. it has been for a long time", reports Deutsche Welle. The author of the analysis, journalist Andreas Ernst, writes: "Nationalist forces in Serbia are hoping for a second term for Donald Trump. His admirers have already put up posters in various cities after his election in 2017. Richard Grenell, Trump's former envoy for the Balkans, is a Belgrade lawyer. The government is supporting it and covering it with prizes. And Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, plans to build a hotel complex in downtown Belgrade. All this encourages the desire to change the post-war order in the region created by the United States of America in favor of Serbia".

New circumstances

The author then states that "the state order in the Western Balkans is the result of Pax Americana" and that "the US militarily ended the wars in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo and established a new order". However, as it is added, the order created by American interventions would not be sustainable without another actor: "In 2003, in the so-called "Thessalonica Promise", the European Union promised the countries of the Western Balkans that all . members of the Union in the future". With that promise, countries received a perspective for prosperity and nationalist actors with revanchist plans were temporarily politically marginalized." "Pax Americana, plus the perspective of the EU, was a stability formula for the region. But that formula is valid today only to a limited extent", says the analysis of the Swiss newspaper. "The international circumstances are changing", says the Serbian opposition politician, Vuk Jeremic, who is apparently talking about Kosovo", writes "Neue Zürcher Zeitung".

The return of Trump

Then the author turns to Trump and declares that he will not disrupt the fragile order in the Western Balkans and this only because that region is not his priority. In this regard, Serbian hopes and fears towards their neighbors are exaggerated. But, it is added, "Trump will weaken the transatlantic axis", and for the Western Balkans, "it is essential whether Trump's course strengthens or weakens the European Union as a geopolitical actor". It depends on the internal situation in the EU, writes the author. "The European elections may have triggered right-wing tendencies, but the political center rejected that attack. However, there is a more important relationship between the member states and their internal organization and in this respect the prospects are worrying", says the analysis, recalling the success of the "Nationalist National Assembly" in France and the fact that in Germany the coalition "can act only to a limited extent". "Economic or political pressure from abroad will lead to the fragmentation of the Union rather than its consolidation," the paper wrote, "Hungary, Slovakia and perhaps Bulgaria could follow suit if the National Assembly takes power in France."

Revanchistic Serbia

The author concludes that all this "would open space in the Western Balkans that could be used by revanchist Serbia. On the agenda would be the reintegration of the north of Kosovo inhabited by Serbs, as well as the separation of the Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina with the aim of reunification with Serbia. These goals would be supported by Russia, which could increase its influence in Europe. At the same time, the impotence of the European Union would become apparent". This is why, as it was said, "the issue of whether Trump is destabilizing the Western Balkans should be reformulated: is the man in the White House destabilizing Europe and in this way opens up space for conflicts in the Balkans". "This risk is very real given the uncertain situation in the EU", concludes the analysis of the Swiss Neue Zürcher Zeitung: "It is unlikely that Europe will maintain Pax Americana without America, writes "Deutsche Welle".