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Scary/ "The weapon to blow up the achievement", this is how Russia's influence and 'spies' can give the fatal blow to the Kosovo-Serbia agreement
Written by SOT.COM.AL 29 Mars 2023
The Serbia-Kosovo agreement on the implementation of the association agreement supported by the EU for the normalization of relations, reached at the Ohrid meeting, has brought relief not only to the EU but also to Brussels and Washington.
However, having too much optimism would be inappropriate. With the approval of the Franco-German proposal, Serbian President Aleksandër Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti have basically accepted a framework for dialogue between the two countries.
For a real change to happen, it will take time and will from both sides, and of course help (in the form of the "carrot" and "stick" policy) from the Europeans as well as the Americans. Disputes rooted in a history of hatred and violent confrontation, such as that between Kosovo and Serbia, can rarely be resolved by agreement, much less when it is imposed from above.
The two leaders may well be aware of the geopolitical benefits of healing the wounds and the benefits that such progress would bring to the people of their countries but also to the citizens of the Balkans in general.
However, they must first convince their countrymen of the painful concessions they will have to make. It will be very difficult to sell a "national betrayal" of this magnitude, given that both Vu?i? and Kurti have built their political careers on the ongoing disputes regarding this issue.
In Serbia, Aleksandar Vu?i? will have to use all his indisputable populist charisma to prevent a strong wave of popular anger. Remember that Serbs and Albanians did not sign an agreement in Ohrid. Vucic stated that he cannot sign a legally binding document because he does not recognize Kosovo as an independent state.
Për rrjedhojë marrëveshjen nuk e nënshkroi as kryeministri i Kosovës Albin Kurti. Gjithsesi që të dy thanë se janë dakord me deklaratën e bërë nga shefi i politikës së jashtme të Bashkimit Evropian, Josep Borrell, mbi përmbajtjen e takimit. Prandaj samiti pati “tym të bardhë”.
Ndërkohë, në këtë diskutim nuk mund të lihet jashtë ekuacionit Rusia. Moska mund t’i kthejë gjërat përmbys duke përdorur në maksimum ndikimin e saj diplomatik tek Beogradi nëse do të mendojë se Serbia rrezikon të dalë jashtë sferës së saj të ndikimit për të kërkuar strehim gjeopolitik në Perëndim.
The majority of the Serbian population (and especially pensioners) are pro-Russian, and the channels of Russian influence, mainly the Orthodox Church, remain very strong. The question is whether Moscow will try to use all this as a weapon by blowing up this whole achievement, if it notices that Vucic is really leaving the Russian sphere of influence. In any case, reconciliation will be a long and difficult road for Serbs and Albanians.