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Two politicians ready to destabilize the Balkans, well-known American analyst unveils Vladimir Putin's plan for the region
Written by SOT.COM.AL 27 Qershor 2022
Foreign policy specialist Edward P. Joseph has sounded the alarm about the situation in the Balkans. The well-known American expert said in an interview with the media that Russian President Vladimir Putin together with his ally in Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic and Milorad Dodik in Bosnia, are trying to destabilize the Balkans. Joseph told The Geopost that Vladimir Putin did not need to wage a new war in the Balkans to win. "Vladimir Putin does not need to wage a new war to take advantage of the problems in the Balkans. Vladimir Putin benefits in the Balkans by keeping the situation the same. By keeping these tensions growing, trying to create new tensions. But neither should it be a war. It does not have to be a new war, for example in Bosnia and Herzegovina, for Vladimir Putin to win. As long as the situation remains the same, trust in this region, in the US and in the European Union falls. Support for the European Union is falling. He can use this as an example, in his eyes, of a failed project, of a failed European Union, just as he is trying to use and demonstrate in Ukraine. And besides it benefits by keeping this region this way. He has an ally who helps him realize the agenda and that ally is in Serbia, he is President Aleksandar Vucic who demonstrated it, even before the invasion. "But now we see the Russian occupation clearly, that he is Vladimir Putin's partner in the same agenda of keeping this region divided and trying to divide Europe," he said. Support for the European Union is falling. He can use this as an example, in his eyes, of a failed project, of a failed European Union, just as he is trying to use and demonstrate in Ukraine. And besides it benefits by keeping this region this way. He has an ally who helps him realize the agenda and that ally is in Serbia, he is President Aleksandar Vucic who demonstrated it, even before the invasion. "But now we see the Russian occupation clearly, that he is Vladimir Putin's partner in the same agenda of keeping this region divided and trying to divide Europe," he said. Support for the European Union is falling. He can use this as an example, in his eyes, of a failed project, of a failed European Union, just as he is trying to use and demonstrate in Ukraine. And besides it benefits by keeping this region this way. He has an ally who helps him realize the agenda and that ally is in Serbia, he is President Aleksandar Vucic who demonstrated it, even before the invasion. "But now we see the Russian occupation clearly, that he is Vladimir Putin's partner in the same agenda of keeping this region divided and trying to divide Europe," he said. And besides it benefits by keeping this region this way. He has an ally who helps him realize the agenda and that ally is in Serbia, he is President Aleksandar Vucic who demonstrated it, even before the invasion. "But now we see the Russian occupation clearly, that he is Vladimir Putin's partner in the same agenda of keeping this region divided and trying to divide Europe," he said. And besides it benefits by keeping this region this way. He has an ally who helps him realize the agenda and that ally is in Serbia, he is President Aleksandar Vucic who demonstrated it, even before the invasion. "But now we see the Russian occupation clearly, that he is Vladimir Putin's partner in the same agenda of keeping this region divided and trying to divide Europe," he said.
Putin's allies in the Western Balkans
Asked if Putin could use Vucic to create trouble, for example in northern Kosovo or Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Milorad Dodik to destabilize the two countries, Joseph said: "The game is not that Vucic will push Dodik to make trouble. It is that Vucic benefits from this possible destabilization. So this is how the game goes because people are afraid that Dodik will start something because he has the Russian support that the US and the EU should then turn to Belgrade, they should turn to Vucic and say “they will help us control Dodik? ”. And this is a game. This is what we in the United States call a rocket, it is a hoax. Vucic is proposing exactly the strategy implemented by Dodik. He claims to respect Bosnian sovereignty, meanwhile he speaks for the Serbian world and carries out our Serbian world politics by violating the sovereignty of Montenegro and also by preventing Kosovo from moving forward, by blocking Kosovo in all international organizations. So Aleksandar Vucic carries out a similar agenda. He does not have to have a new war and Putin does not need a new war in this region in order to take advantage to keep it unstable. But a stable status quo is also good for Moscow, as is the deterioration. He does not have to have a new war and Putin does not need a new war in this region in order to take advantage to keep it unstable. But a stable status quo is also good for Moscow, as is the deterioration. He does not have to have a new war and Putin does not need a new war in this region in order to take advantage to keep it unstable. But a stable status quo is also good for Moscow, as is the deterioration.
Dialogu Prishtinë-Beograd nuk do të ketë sukses
Gjithashtu, ai tha se dialogu mes Kosovës dhe Serbisë, nuk do të ketë sukses përderisa janë pesë vende të tjera në Bashkimin Evropian që nuk e njohin Kosovën si shtet të pavarur dhe Serbia nuk ka interes për ta zgjidhur këtë problem. “Jo. Nuk besoj se dialogu do të ketë sukses dhe kjo nuk është për shkak se Miroslav Lajçak nuk po përpiqet. Ai po përpiqet shumë, është shumë i përshtatshëm dhe e kupton problemin. Është se Serbia nuk ka interes për ta zgjidhur këtë problem të dialogut. Dhe është një iluzion të besosh se Serbia në një pikë të dialogut do të arrijë në njohje. Nuk do të arrijë. Arsyeja që nuk do të jetë është sepse pesë vende të BE-së nuk e njohin Kosovën. Kjo është arsyeja pse dialogu nuk mund të funksionojë. Nuk mund të funksionojë sepse përderisa ata nuk e njohin Kosovën, Serbia nuk ka pse ta njohë Kosovën. Serbia që ne e njohim nuk dëshiron ta njohë Kosovën. Është në mënyrë aktive armiqësore ndaj Kosovës. Kosova aplikoi për anëtarësim në Këshillin e Evropës, Këshilli i Evropës është mjet bashkëpunimi. Pse vendet që duan të kenë marrëdhënie të mira me fqinjët e tyre, pse nuk e duan Kosovën në Këshillin e Evropës? Në Beograd reagimi ishte armiqësor ndaj kësaj”, tha analisti amerikan.