The world is watching the Balkans, the US-EU are intervening more strongly than ever in Kosovo and Serbia, here are 3 reasons why the West will not allow the "powder keg" to explode again

After more than a decade of talks and agreements, Kosovo and Serbia are "back in the game" with a new diplomatic plan drawn up together with the US and the EU. Tensions have risen steadily over the past month and the EU's involvement in the normalization process is more complicated than ever. It was March 18 when, after twelve hours of negotiations in Ohrid, EU High Representative Josep Borrell announced that Serbia and Kosovo had reached an agreement on the implementation of the EU-backed normalization plan. The pact represents the new milestone for a process that has dragged on for more than a decade. Over the past 12 years, there have been many attempts at agreement. One of the most important was the Brussels Agreement in 2013. Now, ten years later, this new pact could be a game-changer. However, in the last 2 months, there have been a number of controversies. This agreement is de facto unilateral as Serbia did not sign it. On this issue, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic presented at the end of April the possibility of a popular referendum on the future of the EU-led agreement. Considering the protests in March chanting "Kosovo is not for sale", this could be a dangerous move from Belgrade that could worsen the complicated dialogue. For its part, Brussels sees the agreement as an important means of pressure, related to EU membership. Therefore, there are three reasons why it is interested in seeking its implementation. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic presented at the end of April the possibility of a popular referendum on the future of the EU-led agreement. Considering the protests in March chanting "Kosovo is not for sale", this could be a dangerous move from Belgrade that could worsen the complicated dialogue. For its part, Brussels sees the agreement as an important means of pressure, related to EU membership. Therefore, there are three reasons why it is interested in seeking its implementation. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic presented at the end of April the possibility of a popular referendum on the future of the EU-led agreement. Considering the protests in March chanting "Kosovo is not for sale", this could be a dangerous move from Belgrade that could worsen the complicated dialogue. For its part, Brussels sees the agreement as an important means of pressure, related to EU membership. Therefore, there are three reasons why it is interested in seeking its implementation. related to EU membership. Therefore, there are three reasons why it is interested in seeking its implementation. related to EU membership. Therefore, there are three reasons why it is interested in seeking its implementation.

The Balkans as a powder keg

First, the EU tries to normalize relations between the Balkan countries to create a safe neighborhood, especially considering the year 1999 and the war in Kosovo. It is not for nothing that the Balkans, since the First World War, has been considered "the century-old European powder keg". The law on placing license plates became the "scapegoat" for the escalation of border tensions. The hot Balkan summer culminated in the official decision of the Serb groups to withdraw from the institutions of northern Kosovo in November 2022. Such an escalation warned Europe how prolonged low-intensity conflicts can suddenly turn into open wars . It certainly prompts Brussels to alarmingly advocate for a normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina.

Russian influence

Marrëdhëniet historike të Serbisë me Moskën janë përforcuar gradualisht në dekadën e fundit, deri në atë pikë sa vendi refuzoi t'i  bashkohej  sanksioneve ndërkombëtare si pasojë e luftës në Ukrainë. Një pakt i ri do të përforconte ENP-në e dobët, përballë vendosmërisë së Moskës për të përdorur ndikimin e saj në Ballkan në dëm të Brukselit. Në Serbi, kjo duket se ka ndikuar edhe tek vetë populli, sa i përket integrimit. Në vitin 2022, për herë të parë, sondazhet zyrtare tregon se si qytetarët serbët janë  më shumë kundër sesa pro një pranimi të mundshëm në BE. Serbia, gëzon një pozicion politik të favorshëm, jo vetëm nga marrëdhëniet diplomatike që ka me Rusinë, por edhe nga dinamika e fuqisë që buron nga çështjet migratore: të dhënat e UNHCR-së flasin për 130.000 migrantë që kaluan tranzit nëpër Serbi në vitin 2022, "me tremujorin e parë të 2023 që regjistroi numrin më të lartë të mbërritjeve që nga viti 2017 ".

Kosovo's international involvement

EU enlargement is part of its essential identity and does not spare the case of Kosovo. For its part, Kosovo has openly shown its intention to become an active player in Europe, from candidacy for EU membership to the possibility of joining the Council of Europe. In this line, the new future for Kosovo coincides with a decrease in tension within the EU institutions related to the EU's relations with the country. Despite the insistence of a hostile bloc of member states, Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Slovakia, in April, the EU liberalized visas for Kosovar citizens. In conclusion, Brussels' openness to a reformulation of Schengen in 2024 shows the essence of the Normative Power of the European Institutions, so that Pristina can be a new partner in the Balkans.