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The projection according to the votes of "May 14", this is how many deputies' mandates Rama, Berisha-Meta and DP will receive in the parliamentary elections of 2025, the surprises with Tom Doshi and Agron Duka and the "bad news" for Arlind Qori and Endri Shabani
Written by Dario VELAJ 10 Qershor 2023
Although the constitution of new municipal councils and new mayors is expected, the result of the local elections of May 14 heralds an even more frightening strengthening of the Socialist Party, which has been at the head of the central and local government for 10 years. "Open Data" has made some projections for the possible results of the 2025 parliamentary elections, based on the number of parties and votes that secured 40 political entities for 61 municipal councils in the local government contest on May 14. Taking as a point of reference the regional proportional electoral system, which was implemented on April 25, 2021, the socialists hypothetically secure 84 deputies, 10 more than in 2021. If they were to achieve such a number of mandates, translated it means elections of The President, the People's Advocate, the justice bodies, and other issues, without the help of allies and opposition. In these cases, the Constitution qualifies 84 deputies in the Assembly of Albania as a qualified majority. On the other hand, the divided democrats and LSI are fragmented 34 mandates "We win together" and 11 official PD. Even if these mandates were mechanically combined, the opposition would still be weaker than in 2021, as it will lose a full 12 deputies (59 in 2021, 47 if we gathered according to this projection). The Social Democratic Party of Tom Doshi and the Agrarian Environmentalist Party of Agron Duka would mark a surprising increase. PSD, SP's ally, would result with 9 deputies (3 in 2021) according to these calculations and PAA with 2 mandates. Another paradoxical conclusion is that even though SP lost votes from 2021 to 2023, it secures more mandates, as it is favored by the electoral system. The two political entities that competed on May 14, The "Thurje" initiative and the TOGETHER movement would not be able to receive any mandate in 2025 based on these "Open Data" projections. Even if the opposition proposes a national proportional system in the Electoral Reform Commission and the majority approves it, again in 2025 with these projections, the SP would win power with a post-election coalition with the PSD (67 SP and 10 PSD, 77 mandates). So, it seems that SP has secured all the ways to extend the life of its power with any electoral formula. falls to 77 mandates). So, it seems that SP has secured all the ways to extend the life of its power with any electoral formula. falls to 77 mandates). So, it seems that SP has secured all the ways to extend the life of its power with any electoral formula.
The paradox with the SP, with fewer votes than 2021 provides 10 more MPs
While the SP received fewer votes in 2023 than in 2021, the formula and the system guarantee more deputies' mandates. The presence of many small and fragmented parties without pre-election coalitions, favoring the largest party in the country, according to the Electoral Code, creates a distortion of representation. More specifically, the SP received 768,134 votes in 2021, while in this election process of May 14, the subject of the SP managed to receive only 579,576 votes for the municipal council. So 24.5% fewer individuals voted for SP. Although with electoral shrinkage, the SP would manage to get and mandate a majority of three fifths of the Assembly. This is because 40 subjects were registered in the May 14 elections, compared to 12 in the 2021 elections. Reading the SP election results, we understand that although 188,558 voters or 24.5% of the 2021 voters were lost,
Balance for the opposition
The comparison for the opposition is based on the 2021 coalition between the Democratic Party and allies. For 2021, the votes of the Democratic Party, "Alliance for Change" and those of the Socialist Movement for Integration Party have been collected. For the purpose of comparison in 2023, the votes of the "Together We Win" Coalition, the Official Democratic Party, the Agrarian Environmentalist Party, the Republican Party, the Justice, Integration and Unity Party, the Legality Movement Party, the LZHK Progressive Alliance, the New Democratic Spirit, the Balli Party have been combined. National, and the Christian Democratic Party. Together, these parties managed to get 731,671 votes in 2021, while in 2023, they collected 535,415 votes, a decrease of 26.6%. Even if we count the translations of votes into mandates, from 59 deputies in 2021,
The different variant with a national proportional system, the SP comes out with 67 mandates.
If the SP would get 579,576 votes with a national proportional system, although the same regional formula is preserved (which applies to the whole country and not to each result in the District), the SP would to receive only 67 MPs. So less than 50% of the number of deputies in the Assembly.
Meta-Berisha "shrinks" from 34 to 28, the official PD from 11 to 12.
With the votes of 2023 and with a proportional system with national competition, the coalition "Bashke Fitojn" would secure only 28 deputies, suffering a loss of 6 deputies from the system with regional competition. The official PD would get one more mandate if the national proportional system were applied, namely 12 of the 11 projected for 2025.
Doshi and PAA are again "lucky", 10 and 5 mandates respectively
Progressive in a System with National Competition, the result would be marked for Tom Doshi's Party which guarantees 10 MPs. The Agrarian Environmentalist Party would provide 5 deputies. These five parties (SP, BF, official PD, PSD and PAA) would remain parliamentary parties with both types of electoral systems, but with different numbers of mandates.
18 deputies for 10 small parties, this is how they are divided
With the proportional electoral system with national competition, there would be 10 more parliamentary parties. Respectively, the Republican Party and the Justice, Integration and Unity Party with 3 MPs each; The Legality Movement Party, the LZHK Progressive Alliance, the Social Democracy Party and the New Democratic Spirit with 2 mandates each; The Liberal Right Alliance, the Green Party, the National Tree Alliance, and Nisma Thurje would provide 1 MP each.
The national proportional variant "smiles" for Rama again, here's why
The Socialists could once again ensure their stay in power even with a national proportional electoral system. With their 67 mandates and PSD's 10, they will easily dominate the Assembly and the leadership of the state. While the entire opposition, even if it were to become a front, would remain with 63 deputies. This means that the opposition must secure a large number of votes from the "grey" electorate and the disillusioned socialists in order to attempt a serious competition with the SP to overthrow it from power.