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Ekonomia

What is happening to the foreign currency? Euro plummets again, touches the lowest level of the year...

What is happening to the foreign currency? Euro plummets again, touches the

The euro started this week with a decline and for the first time this year it dropped below the limit of 114 lek. According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the euro was exchanged today at 113.97 ALL, the lowest value of 2023. The exchange rate of the euro is again approaching the lowest historical levels, which were recorded at the end of December of the year passed.

On December 28, 2022, the euro touched the lowest historical level in the exchange rate with the lek, at the level of 112.83 lek.

Foreign exchange rate experts say that the euro exchange rate has gradually returned to the features of the last part of last year, characterized by a weak demand for the euro, combined with a constant and satisfactory supply of the European currency.

This situation is bringing a continuous decline of the euro in the exchange rate with the lek. After the second half of November, the demand for euros in the Albanian foreign exchange market shrank due to the interruption of electricity imports.

This situation gave a further blow to the euro exchange rate, which during 2022 had shown a further downward trend, despite the large purchases by the Albanian Electricity Corporation, estimated at around 400 million euros.

Another factor that has further reduced the demand for the euro, according to experts, may have been concentrated purchases of the currency at the end of December, taking advantage of the very low exchange rate.

According to them, many businesses may have made purchases in advance for the needs of the first quarter, causing the ongoing demand to fall.

Potentially, an influential factor in the strengthening of the lek against the euro could be the restrictive nature of the monetary and fiscal policy in the country. The base interest rate has reached 2.75%, from 0.5% a year ago.

Transmetimi i kësaj rritjeje në tregun financiar ka sjellë një ngadalësim të ndjeshëm të kreditimit të ekonomisë, sidomos duke filluar nga tremujori i fundit i vitit të kaluar.

Nga ana tjetër, edhe deficiti buxhetor vitin e kaluar pësoi rënie me më shumë se 8% krahasuar me një vit më parë. Në teori, tkurrja e ofertës së lekut mund të ketë ndikuar gjithashtu në mbiçmimin e monedhës vendase.

Ekspertët besojnë se ndoshta gjatë muajve në vazhdim mund të ketë një shtim të stimulit fiskal, edhe për shkak të zhvillimit të zgjedhjeve vendore në muajin maj.

Por, përvoja ka treguar se periudhat parazgjedhore shoqërohen edhe me shtim të ofertës së euros në tregun valutor, ndaj ndoshta as zgjedhjet vendore mund të mos kenë një efekt të rëndësishëm në drejtim të zhvlerësimit të lekut.

Another factor in favor of the strengthening of the lek could have been the improvement of the trade balance at the beginning of this year. For the month of January, the trade deficit decreased by 19.4% compared to a year ago and by 70.3% compared to December.

Meanwhile, the indirect data related to tourism are also quite positive. For the month of January, the arrivals of foreign nationals almost doubled compared to the same period a year ago.

In the future, the effect of tourism on foreign currency flows is expected to increase gradually, and in the absence of other balancing factors, it is likely that this will lead to a further drop in the euro exchange rate. Monitor 

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