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Ekonomia

Euro receives the next blow, for the first time in history the exchange rate falls below the level of 113 lek

Euro receives the next blow, for the first time in history the exchange rate

The euro has suffered another very strong drop in the exchange rate with the lek on Wednesday.

According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the Euro fell to the level of 112.83 ALL, losing more than one point compared to Tuesday. Since the beginning of December, the Euro-Lek exchange rate has decreased by 3.45%, while since the beginning of 2022, the decrease has reached 6.44%.

According to market agents, this week there is a further increase in the foreign exchange supply in the market, due to the festive season. This is a more or less common seasonal trend, associated with the increase in inbound tourism and the return of expats for the holiday season.

However, this year the seasonal effect is following a period when the positions of the Euro were already quite weak, due to the continued high supply, but also due to the strong curbing of demand by the Albanian Electricity Corporation, starting from the part of the end of November.

The fall of the Euro has also been influenced by other sporadic elements, such as the decision of one of the commercial banks to convert a part of the share capital from Euro to Lek. All these factors are bringing an unprecedented devaluation of the Euro against the Lek.

Most of the market agents state that throughout 2022 a high foreign exchange supply has been observed in the market. This high offer has determined the downward trend of the Euro against the Lek, despite the increase in the price of imports in general and the large purchases of KESH in particular, as well as the planned purchases by the Bank of Albania, for the needs of the foreign exchange reserve.

The high supply has been influenced by the growth of tourism, exports of services and remittances, but nevertheless, as a whole, the current account deficit of the country until the end of the 9th month was in values ??close to the same period last year.

Nga ana tjetër investimet e huaja direkte kanë shënuar një rritje të ndjeshme, me 35%, megjithëse ato janë dominuar nga fitimet e riinvestuara. Në veçanti, një ndikim në rritje e prurjeve valutore kanë dhënë edhe investimet në rritje të huaja në tregun e pasurive të paluajtshme.

Përtej faktorëve të matshëm nga statistikat zyrtare, agjentët e tregu besojnë se prurjet e mëdha informale kanë një kontribut të rëndësishëm në ofertën e lartë valutore dhe në zhvlerëismin e Euros ndaj Lekut.

Forcimi i monedhës vendase ndaj Euros, që është njëkohësisht valuta kryesore në këmbimet tregtare të Shqipërisë, luan një rol pozitiv në drejtim të zbutjes së inflacionit. Analizat e Bankës së Shqipërisë kanë evidentuar se forcimi i Lekut është një nga faktorët që kanë zbutur presionet e forta inflacioniste nga jashtë dhe kanë bërë që Shqipëria të ketë një ndër normat më të ulëta të inflacionit në Europë. Forcimi i Lekut po favorizon edhe familjet shqiptare që kanë kredi në valutë të huaj të paguajnë më pak për të blerë valutën e nevojshme për shlyerjen e kësteve.

Por, rënia e Euros dhe mbiçmimi Lekut kanë edhe palë të humbura. Eksportuesit dhe sidomos sektorët e fasonerisë kanë pësuar një goditje të ndjeshme nga zhvlerësimi i Euros këtë vit.

Also, Albanian families that have a high dependence on remittances are also being negatively affected by the drop in the Euro exchange rate. Since the Euro is the dominant currency in the structure of bank deposits, in theory even individuals who have deposits in Euro are affected by the fall of the European currency./MONITOR

 

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