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The three scenarios if Russia does not win the war, chaos will break out in Moscow, this is how the security services will remove Putin from power and his last move to save "the head"
Written by Marsela Shytia 18 Mars 2023
When the Russian leader launched an invasion of neighboring Ukraine last February, the Kremlin hoped to take the capital, Kiev, within days. More than a year later, there seems to be no end to the war. Ukraine is expected to launch a new counteroffensive against Russian forces in the coming months. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged on Monday that Russia's chances of victory in Ukraine were diminishing, adding that the Russian leader's war aims can now only be achieved by military means, not peace talks. Putin can be replaced. He is not a superhero. He has no superpowers. He is just an ordinary dictator. If we look at history, we see that such dictators are easily replaced. "If Putin is unable to win the war on his terms,
Three scenarios for the end of the war
"Perhaps the Russians, after the war is over, will think they no longer need Putin. I think the situation will change when they find themselves in a new reality in which Putin can offer them nothing but fear and repression," he said. Vlad Mikhnenko, an expert on the post-communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union at the University of Oxford, laid out three possible scenarios for a Russian defeat. A lot, if not everything, depends on the way of defeat", said Mikhnenko for "Neëseek".
The overthrow of the president
The first scenario, a chaotic retreat caused by a "striking Ukrainian offensive on one or more fronts" would result in a "rapid collapse." The situation in Moscow will quickly deteriorate and the security services will remove Putin from power. He would not be able to use nuclear weapons, as Mikhnenko said.
Another scenario could lead to a retreat like those of World War I, Mikhnenko said, "similar to the collapse of the Russian army in 1916-1917." The current war would continue for a long time, with Russian soldiers mobilized , equipped but with very little support. They would spend months in muddy, cold trenches under increasingly accurate Ukrainian barrages, deserting en masse, which would lead to the collapse of the front," he said. Unlike the first scenario, the situation would change much more slowly and less dramatically, giving Putin enough time to reach a ceasefire or a short-term solution," Mikhnenko said. This scenario could lead to a gradual resignation of Putin, to make way for a new leader,
Putin shpëton “kokën”
Miknienko tha se një skenar i tretë mund të shihte zgjatjen e luftës në Ukrainë edhe dy vjet të tjera, me pakënaqësi në rritje në Rusi, një tërheqje të ngadaltë ruse në disa vende dhe trupa që vazhdojnë luftën në vijën e frontit diku tjetër. Në këtë rast, elita ekonomike dhe financiare, do të përpiqeshin të negocionin me Putinin për shpalljen e "fitores" në përballjen me Perëndimin. Ndryshe nga dy skenarët e parë, këtu Putini ka fuqinë negociuese dhe një shans për të shpëtuar jetën e tij”, tha ai. Bondarev tha që Putini mund të përpiqet të shfaqë çdo sukses të vogël që ka arritur në Ukrainë si fitore. “Do të jetë mjaft e vështirë për Putinin të bindë elitën e tij se kjo fitore ia vlen duke marrë parasysh gjithçka që ata kanë humbur... Unë nuk mendoj se do të ishin shumë të lumtur vetëm me pushtimin e disa fshatrave të Ukrainës”, tha ai. Grigory Yavlinsky, themeluesi i partisë ruse Yabloko, tha se propaganda do të ndikojë në mënyrën sesi rusët e perceptojnë humbjen.