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The war in Ukraine may go to the "Korean Model", here is how Putin and Zelensky can use the ceasefire scheme between Pyongyang and Seoul signed in 1953

The war in Ukraine may go to the "Korean Model", here is how Putin and

An armistice instead of a peace treaty. A country divided into two opposing spheres of influence. The risk of a permanent escalation that could reignite the conflict at any moment. The nuclear nightmare that threatens regional peace and, therefore, global peace. In case the war in Ukraine were to go towards the so-called Korean solution, we could imagine something like this. With a scenario that would follow what happened on the Korean peninsula after the Korean War (1950-1953). If that were the case, Europe would find itself facing, on its eastern flank, a military dispute frozen by an armistice, no effective peace, but above all the great politico-territorial problem between Kiev and Moscow . Hopefully, it goes without saying, that during this kind of apparent lull, Ukrainians and Russians will respect the agreements. It's not the best possible outcome, but it's always better than the current situation, some analysts point out. It is a condition to be avoided because the balance in the field is too fragile, others say.

Comparison with the Korean Peninsula

The contexts are different, but the underlying content is similar. The Korean conflict is, in some ways, reminiscent of the war in Ukraine. The tug-of-war between Pyongyang and Seoul has never officially ended: it was suspended by an armistice signed in 1953, which halted the fighting without, however, leading to any formal peace treaty. Today the Korean peninsula is divided into two parts. Above the 38th parallel, the line that effectively serves as the official border between the Koreas, we find North Korea led by Kim Jong Un, close to China's geopolitical orbit; below is South Korea, a staunch ally of the United States. The hope that another ceasefire could end Russian-Ukrainian hostilities and create two distinct entities within today's Ukraine is based on three ideas. First, neither Russia nor Ukraine would seem to be able to score another total victory. Second, the political positions of the two countries are too far apart to make a peace agreement possible. Third, both Kiev and Moscow are suffering heavy losses, which could make a ceasefire attractive.

Ngrirja e konfliktit

Nuk është rastësi që zyrtarët amerikanë po arsyetojnë se lufta midis Rusisë dhe Ukrainës mund të kthehet në një konflikt të ngrirë, që do të zgjasë pafundësisht, shumë vite ose ndoshta dekada sipas skenarëve të tjerë të ngjashëm. Faqja e internetit Politico shkruante se fjalimet e para që do të shkonin pikërisht në këtë drejtim do të kishin nisur brenda administratës Biden. Opsionet që po diskutohen për një "ngrirje" afatgjatë do të shqyrtonin ndërkohë dilemën se cilët kufij jozyrtarë duhet të vendosen për të bindur Moskën dhe Kievin që t'i respektojnë ata. Diskutimet, edhe pse tentative, do të zhvilloheshin brenda agjencive të ndryshme amerikane dhe në Shtëpinë e Bardhë. Pse edhe Uashingtoni po luan me idenë e një zgjidhjeje koreane? Ky është një skenar që mund të rezultojë të jetë rezultati afatgjatë më real, duke qenë se as Kievi dhe as Moska nuk do ta pranojnë kurrë humbjen. Për më tepër, ngrirja e konfliktit po bëhet një ide konkrete, duke qenë se SHBA-të kanë ndjenjën se kundërofensiva e afërt e Ukrainës nuk do të jetë në gjendje t'i japë një goditje vdekjeprurëse Rusisë. Çfarë do të thotë të zgjidhësh krizën ukrainase me zgjidhjen koreane? Për të formuar një Ukrainë të ndarë në dy shtete të dallueshme. Njëra e mbrojtur nga Rusia, tjetra nga Blloku Perëndimor, ashtu siç ndodhi në gadishullin Korean në fund të Luftës Koreane, me Korenë e Veriut nën ombrellën e BRSS (dhe Kinës) dhe Korenë e Jugut të strehuar nga Shtetet e Bashkuara.

Doubts and criticisms

Although the Korean settlement may lead to a freeze in the conflict, doubts and risks will remain in such a scenario. Meanwhile, applying the Korean model to Ukraine, given the determination of the Russians and Ukrainians in pursuing their military objectives, will bring to the table the same critical issues present in Asia. In fact, North Korea and South Korea are still at war with each other.

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