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Bota

The IMF makes a dire warning about the future of the economy

The IMF makes a dire warning about the future of the economy

Two well-known economists gave different predictions on the future of the global economy on Thursday.

Kristalina Georgieva, director of the International Monetary Fund, said at a discussion at Georgetown University on Thursday that the IMF is again lowering its forecasts for global economic growth in 2023. She said world economic growth will be $4 trillion more. low, until 2026.

"Things are more likely to get worse before they get better again," she said, adding that the Russian attack on Ukraine that began in February has dramatically changed the IMF's outlook on the economy. "The risks of an economic downturn are increasing," she said, calling the current economic environment a "period of historic fragility."

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, during a discussion at the Center for Global Development, focused on how the United States and its allies can contribute to long-term investments in the global economy.

She called for ambitious political solutions and did not use the word economic "slump". But despite Ms. Yellen's more measured view, she said "the global economy faces considerable uncertainty."

The war in Ukraine has sharply increased food and energy prices globally in some countries. Russia, a major global supplier of energy and chemical fertilizers, has significantly escalated the conflict and exposed vulnerabilities around global food and energy supplies.

The COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation and worsening climate conditions are also affecting world economies and exacerbating other crises, such as the high debt levels of lower-income countries.

Ms Georgieva said the IMF estimates that countries that make up a third of the world's economy will see at least two consecutive quarters of economic contraction this year or next, adding that the institution she leads has cut its global growth forecasts for three years now. times. Now the IMF predicts an economic growth of 3.2% for 2022 and 2.9% for 2023.

The IMF's gloomy forecasts come as central banks around the world are raising interest rates in hopes of taming high inflation. The United States Federal Reserve has been more aggressive in raising interest rates to fight inflation. This week, central banks from Asia to Britain have started raising their interest rates.

Zonja Georgieva tha se “shtrëngimi i politikës monetare shumë dhe shumë shpejt – dhe duke e bërë këtë në një mënyrë të sinkronizuar nëpër vende mund të shtyjë shumë ekonomi në recesion të zgjatur.”

Maurice Obstfeld, ekonomist në Universitetin e Kalifornisë, Berkeley, shkroi kohët e fundit se shtrëngimi i tepërt nga Rezerva Federale mund të “çojë ekonominë botërore në një tkurrje të panevojshme të fortë”.

Zonja Yellen ra dakord të enjten se “shtrëngimi makroekonomik në vendet e përparuara mund të ketë pasoja ndërkombëtare”.

Fjalimet e dy ekonomistëve vijnë përpara takimeve vjetore që mbahen javën e ardhshme të FMN-së me 190 vende anëtare dhe agjencisë së saj simotër huadhënëse, Bankës Botërore, të cilat synojnë të trajtojnë një sërë rreziqesh për ekonominë globale.

Zonja Georgieva tha se Perspektiva e përditësuar Ekonomike Botërore e fondit që do të publikohet javën e ardhshme ul shifrat e rritjes për vitin e ardhshëm.

Shumë vende tani po ndjejnë ndikime të mëdha nga pushtimi i Ukrainës në ekonomitë e tyre dhe parashikimet e zymta të FMN-së janë në përputhje me parashikimet e tjera për rënie të rritjes.

Organizata për Bashkëpunim dhe Zhvillim Ekonomik javën e kaluar tha se ekonomia globale do të humbasë 2.8 trilion dollarë në prodhim në vitin 2023 për shkak të luftës.

Parashikimet vijnë pasi aleanca OPEC+ e vendeve eksportuese të naftës vendosi të mërkurën të ulë ndjeshëm prodhimin si reagim ndaj çmimeve të ulëta të naftës, një lëvizje kjo që mund t’i japë një tjetër goditje ekonomisë globale në vështirësi dhe të rrisë çmimet e naftës, një temë e ndjeshme politike për udhëheqësit amerikanë pak përpara zgjedhjeve për Kongresin, që do mbahen në nëntor.

Zonja Yellen tha duke qenë se shumë vende në zhvillim po përballen njëkohësisht me shumë sfida, nga borxhi tek uria deri tek çmimet në rritje, “kjo nuk është koha që ne të tërhiqemi”.

“Ne kemi nevojë për ambicie në përditësimin e vizionit tonë për financimin dhe realizimin e zhvillimit. Dhe ne kemi nevojë për ambicie në përmbushjen e sfidave tona globale”, tha ajo./VOA