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Ukrainian plan to retake Crimea begins, missile barrage sinks Russian ships, war moves to Black Sea, Vladimir Putin towards extreme decision
Written by Marsela Shytia 14 Shtator 2023
On a day that was supposed to be one of the rare occasions when Putin could claim such a diplomatic victory, with a visit from fellow "global outcast" North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the Ukrainians prepared an unpleasant surprise for the Russian leader. Early Wednesday morning, Sevastopol, the largest city in occupied Crimea and also the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, was attacked. The attack against the Sevastopol shipyard is another Ukrainian attack on Russia's operational capabilities in the Black Sea. The event certainly has a symbolic value and makes it clear to Moscow's military that even its most fortified strategic structures are not safe from the "Storm Shadows" missiles. The consequences of this success for Kiev, however, may extend far beyond "simple" bombings.
Battle of the Black Sea
In the Black Sea, Ukraine has already achieved an important victory: despite the lack of a naval force, it managed to force the Russian fleet into a defensive position. In the initial stages of the war, Vladimir Putin's ships conducted close-shore operations and could guarantee support for ground troops, as well as posing a real threat to the economic survival of the occupied country through a total blockade of ports. Kiev's increased use of Neptune cruise missiles and withdrawal from Snake Island has deprived the Russian fleet of the air cover needed to conduct these types of operations. Added to this was the deployment of naval kamikaze drones, a constant threat to which Federation ships have yet to find an effective response.
Russia, however, still has one card up its sleeve with which to threaten Ukraine: the Kilo-class submarines. The $300 million ships typically carry an array of up to 18 torpedoes or 24 sea mines, but can also load a maximum of four Kalibr cruise missiles. So far, four ships of this type have been used as launch platforms for the Kalibr missiles, supersonic anti-ship and anti-surface warheads, which over the winter have dealt heavy blows to Ukrainian strategic infrastructure and especially the power grid. The upgraded Kilo-class submarines are referred to as the third generation of large diesel-electric submarines. According to Russia, submarines are among the quietest in the world. They are 74 meters long, have a displacement of over 3,900 tons and an operational depth of 240 meters. Now Moscow,
Lufta e zgjatur
Ecuria e ngadaltë e kundërofensive ukrainase dhe sezoni i ftohtë që po afrohet e bëjnë këtë mundësi gjithnjë e më konkrete. Ngadalësimi i operacioneve të luftës për shkak të muajve të dimrit dhe mungesa e një fitoreje vendimtare për Kievin në fushë do të bënte që lufta të shkojë gjithnjë e më tej drejt rrugës së një konflikti të gjatë. Nga ky këndvështrim, aspekti ekonomik do të luante një rol themelor. Në vitin 2022, PBB-ja e vendit u tkurr me 30% dhe pas tërheqjes së Rusisë nga marrëveshja në shkallë të gjerë, pesë vende të Bashkimit Evropian vendosën një veto për shitjen e drithërave ukrainas në territorin e tyre. Pas “tymit të zi” të takimit në Soçi mes Erdoganit dhe Putinit, Varshava e zgjati ndalimin përtej datës së skadimit të 15 shtatorit. Në një situatë të tillë brishtësia ekonomike, një fushatë nëndetëse ruse mund t'i jepte goditjen përfundimtare Ukrainës, duke e privuar atë nga aftësia për t'i bërë ballë një lufte rrënimi. Prandaj, mund të supozohet se shkatërrimi i "Rostov-on-Don" ishte një lloj veprimi parandalues, një goditje që iu dha jo vetëm aftësisë së Rusisë për të mirëmbajtur dhe riparuar anijet e saj në Detin e Zi, por edhe për mundësinë e saj për të ndryshuar strategjinë dhe për të adoptuar një qasje që, për momentin, ushtria ukrainase nuk do të ishte e gatshme ta kundërshtonte.