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His days are numbered, here's who will come after Vladimir Putin at the head of Russia and the sensational scenario of how the war in Ukraine will end
Written by Alfrida Shanaj 2 Dhjetor 2022
Who will be Vladimir Putin's successor? What about the war in Ukraine when it will come to an end. Since the start of the war in Ukraine by Russian military forces, these two questions are the topics that have been talked about the most. Many hypotheses have been raised regarding these issues. One of the loudest hypotheses is that of the former correspondent of the BBC in Moscow, Philip Short. In an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriera della Serra, he said that the presidential elections expected to be held in Russia in 2024 will be decisive both for the war in Ukraine and for Russian President Vladimir Putin himself.
Russians do not support Putin
The journalist thinks that these elections will not be an easy challenge for Putin, since after the beginning of Russian attacks in Ukraine, the credibility and support of Russians towards their leader has decreased. That is, one hypothesis is that he may lose the presidential elections since he does not have the support of his people. Recently in the Russian bureaucratic ranks there is talk of another hypothesis that it will be the Russian leader himself who will take a step aside, thus leaving room for a successor whom it is thought that you would propose yourself. Something like this would facilitate and simplify the resolution of the issue of the war in Ukraine. If Putin is to choose then he will choose someone he feels he can trust with his personal security and his legacy.
New rival for Putin
The possibility of the birth of a rival within the Russian bureaucratic apparatus, such as between the siloviki factions or the oligarchs, should not be excluded. Rivalries that have always existed, it is even thought that something like this can be instigated by Putin himself, but as it seems, so far they have not been at all worrying for the Russian leader. It is not excluded that these forces will unite against him and this would mark the end of Putin. This would at the same time bring a military chaos in Russia that no one would want. Military unrest in Ukraine, political uncertainty in Russia, and intermittent news about his health mean elites are quietly discussing something that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago: who would succeed Putin and how. I would be in the country life after Putin.
Sipas Short, Cari rus dëshiron paqe por me kriteret dhe kushtet e tij. Ai nuk dëshiron luftë të përhershme pasi kjo do t’i kushtonte atij jo vetëm dobësi ekonomike, por do të vihej në rrezik posti i tij. Ndaj mendohet që do të ketë një armëpushim pasi bëhet fjalë për një lodhje të të dy palëve. Normalisht që kjo do të varet nga furnizimi që do të bëjnë vendet e tjera në Ukrainë. Putini shpreson se Perëndimi do të humbasë entuziazmin në mbështetje të Ukrainës, por edhe nëse sanksionet hiqen nesër, dëmi i bërë tashmë do të thotë se ekonomisë ruse do t’i duhen vite për t’u rikuperuar. Sanksionet kanë kontribuar gjithashtu në rritjen e inflacionit në pothuajse 18 për qind dhe së bashku me me rritjen e papunësisë në vend është bërë një problem shumë serioz. Ndërkohë, ushtria ka vështirësi në gjetjen e njerëzve për të plotësuar gradat e saj dhe gjeneralët janë të zemëruar për rishqyrtimin e Putinit për mobilizimin e rezervistëve.
Armistice or end of war
But will there be a truce or an end to the war? It is difficult to say something concrete, but it is already known that Putin's focus is currently on the east of Ukraine. According to analysts, Russia can stop the fighting only if it completely takes over the regions in the east. The end of the war in Ukraine is now a waiting game and a guessing game for everyone as there are so many scenarios. For many analysts, allies and the Ukrainian government should start thinking about how to achieve the goals without resorting to a bigger war, a scenario that no one wants.