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Bota

Sensational behind-the-scenes emerges, Putin about to experience the great catastrophe that will end the war in Ukraine, peace talks inevitable, drastic changes expected in Moscow

Sensational behind-the-scenes emerges, Putin about to experience the great

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his speech on September 30 that the Kremlin is open to negotiations with Ukraine, but that discussing the status of newly annexed territories cannot be discussed for him. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was clear from day one that another annexation would completely rule out negotiations, and quickly responded on the same day that Putin signed the annexation documents: if there are future negotiations, the president of Russia should be anyone but Putin. It is hard to imagine that there can be negotiations of any kind now for two reasons, according to novayagazeta. eu. Reason number one is that the Kremlin's only demand would be Kiev's capitulation, but that seems far beyond reason as Putin's room for progress narrows every day. Having been defeated twice tactically, he must now prepare a new offensive, risking a complete defeat this time. Reason number two is that bilateral negotiations without mediators and guarantors are only possible if capitulation is involved, while a peace agreement requires a neutral country and a group of international guarantors.

Putin is approaching disaster

However, no one will take the initiative and start such negotiations, because since September 30 it became clear that Putin is not waging a war against Ukraine, but a war against reality, and Kiev's positions are rapidly strengthening. Putin is approaching disaster at full speed, and Kiev sees it, so it is no longer useful for Ukraine to "retire by February 23". It is now doubtful that the Kremlin would be able to establish a solid "line of separation" even if 50,000 troops were deployed from the Far East. Putin will never be able to back out of this war, so this matter will be in the hands of his successor, whoever he may be. It will be an extreme challenge for the next president, because the level of Putin's aggression towards Ukraine will force them to do everything to assure everyone that this will never happen again. The "Russian threat" has become a global issue, worrying dozens of countries around the world at this time. Zelenskiy's formula that he offered in March, which includes support until February 23, postponing the Crimea issue for 15 years and accepting Ukraine's neutral status, is no longer enough for Kiev.

What can Russia expect under the new president?

Së pari, marrëveshja e paqes nuk do të funksionojë vetëm me garantuesit evropianë, kështu që Kina dhe ndoshta Kanadaja do të duhet të bashkohen me Gjermaninë dhe Francën. Kremlini do të duhet të mbledhë një numër më të madh garantuesish dhe do të kërkohet një bindje e qartë dhe vendimtare për qëllimet e mira të Moskës. Së dyti, traktati i paqes do të kërkojë një kuptim të ri të vendit të Rusisë në sistemin evropian të sigurisë. Ky koncept i ri duhet të kënaqë edhe vendet fqinje të Rusisë dhe Evropës Lindore në përgjithësi. Së treti, negociatat e marrëveshjes së paqes do të jenë në mënyrë të pashmangshme një pazare për kompensimin monetar rus ndaj Ukrainës, sepse dëmi që ka shkaktuar është kolosal. Ka të ngjarë që diplomacia e Moskës nën presidentin e ri të mund të binte dakord për një plan të ri Marshall, duke hequr pikën e kompensimit nga negociatat. Kjo do të kërkojë përpjekje të mëdha diplomatike dhe, më e rëndësishmja, ndershmëri dhe transparencë të plotë nga Moska. Putinit mund të duhen edhe disa muaj, por bisedimet e paqes, jo një armëpushim, do të jenë të pashmangshme. Bisedimet e paqes të këtij lloji mund të zgjidhin të gjitha çështjet e vendeve post-sovjetike me një goditje: Moska do të zëvendësojë pagesat e saj të kompensimit ndaj Ukrainës për mbylljen e të gjitha “zonave të dhimbjes” të saj duke tërhequr trupat e saj nga Transnistria e Moldavisë, Abkhazia e Gjeorgjisë dhe Osetia e Jugut dhe çmilitarizimi i enklavës së Kaliningradit. Ky grup propozimesh do të ishte një përpjekje e denjë e Moskës drejt sigurisë evropiane. Disa mund të thonë se kjo tingëllon surreale, por do të jetë kështu sepse Moska nuk mund ta shmangë fatkeqësinë e afërt me humbje minimale.