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Ekonomia

Government financial plan, here are 6 risks for debt management, high interest main problem

Government financial plan, here are 6 risks for debt management, high interest

The government has identified six risks affecting public debt that it will work on over the next three years. Due to the pandemic, the Albanian government has been forced to borrow more, thus raising its size to a very high level. But for the following years the Ministry of Finance has published the plan, which focuses on reducing this debt. In order to work on reducing it, the potential risks faced for controlling public debt have been identified. One of the main risks is the high level of interest, which is expected to focus on maintaining the debt stock balance and the form in which loans will be taken. At this point the government envisages that every step be taken with the approval of investors, who are key to debt reduction and economic growth. "Interest rate risk. It is a risk that needs to be managed on an ongoing basis given the still high level of short-term debt. In this regard, in addition to measures to reduce the weight of short-term securities, the aim will be to keep under control the weight of securities with variable interest rates, in line with market space and investor preferences, "said in the report. Among other things, it is pointed out that in order to reduce the public debt to the foreseen measures, its control and management measures should be increased, in order to avoid the risk of lack of good management and increase of formality. "The goal of a downward trajectory of public debt, targeting as an annual operational objective the return of the budget to a balanced balance with a primary balance or with a surplus, possibly for 2022, but necessarily from the budget year 2023 onwards. Therefore, operational risk will be avoided, which is related to the strengthening of the public debt management unit to continue its efforts, in terms of: well-defined functions in the debt management unit; standardization and formalization of procedures in debt management activities, in accordance with the approved structure and increase of management capacities ", explains the ministry.

Three other risks

According to the published plan, one of the permanent risks is the fiscal deficit, from the deep imbalance from the lack of income. The fiscal deficit widened sharply due to the pandemic, when the government was forced to raise spending beyond forecasts. But for the coming years the level of expenditures will be kept the same, while revenues will increase from the improvement of the fiscal system. "By staying within the contours of macroeconomic and revenue forecasts for the next three years, and aiming to meet the above-mentioned fiscal deficit targets for this period, total government resources to be spent during 2022-2024 are expected be on average at about ALL 602.1 billion each year. Public investment is programmed to be maintained at an average level of about 4.8 percent each year, from the central government, without including those from the local government, which is considered an appropriate level to support a high and sustainable economic growth ", the plan states. Another risk identified by the government, which also needs to be worked on, is that of the exchange rate which will go towards normalization by reducing the stock from this item. Then comes the financing risk, due to the elements that require refinancing in the medium term and in these conditions it is impossible, as well as the need for liquidity that private businesses, state-owned enterprises and the banking system itself have. for which it is also necessary to work is that of the exchange rate which will go towards normalization by reducing the stock from this item. Then comes the financing risk, due to the elements that require refinancing in the medium term and in these conditions it is impossible, as well as the need for liquidity that private businesses, state-owned enterprises and the banking system itself have. for which it is also necessary to work is that of the exchange rate which will go towards normalization by reducing the stock from this item. Then comes the financing risk, due to the elements that require refinancing in the medium term and in these conditions it is impossible, as well as the need for liquidity that private businesses, state-owned enterprises and the banking system itself have.

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