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Ekonomia

EBRD forecasts Albania will have the lowest economic recovery in the region, economic growth is expected at 4.5% this year

EBRD forecasts Albania will have the lowest economic recovery in the region,

The Albanian economy will record the slowest recovery in the region this year. This is what the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicts, through a report published yesterday. The EBRD shows that the Albanian economy will grow by 4.5% this year and what stands out is that we are much below the level of economies in the region. According to the data, other countries will have an increase of 2% to 4% higher than Albania. Albania's economy will grow by 4.5% this year. "Albania's economy will grow by 4.5% this year, In the region, the highest growth rate this year will have the Montenegrin economy with 8.5%, due to last year's large decline of -15.2% "The economy of Serbia will expand by 6%, the economy of Macedonia by 4%, that of Kosovo by 4%, while the economy of Bosnia by 3.5%", reports the EBRD. According to the data, Albania's economy will reach the pre-crisis level this year, and will even exceed it by 1% this year, but will still grow at lower rates than the Western Balkans average of 5.1%. Among other things, the report shows that for 2022 the EBRD expects further expansion with 3.9% growth, while for Albania it forecasts a 4% increase next year.

Fiscal problems remain a risk

According to the EBRD analysis, our economy is moving at a slower recovery because there are more fiscal problems. The bank reports that, our country carries the highest economic debt among the countries of the region and the worst is that this debt is continuing to grow even now after the pandemic. "Fiscal weaknesses have increased as stimulus packages have increased public debt in EBRD regions by an average of 11 percentage points of GDP. In many economies, public debt is now at extremely high levels, mentioning Macedonia, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina. While bankruptcies have so far remained subdued due to widespread support from aid packages, weaknesses may emerge when withdrawing government support measures, the report said.

Varianti i ri i Covid-19

The EBRD argues, among other things, that the coronavirus remains the reason for such a slow economic performance. The bank analyzes that the explosion of the "Delta" variant has restored fear to consumers and financial insecurity to businesses. According to the bank, out of this fear, businesses are afraid to invest and citizens do not spend much to anticipate another financial crisis, such as the one in 2020. "There remains a great deal of uncertainty about the path of the new Covid-19 variant , "Delta" which poses particularly high risks for countries that have made less progress with vaccinations and for economies highly dependent on international tourism. The outlook for 2020 is diverse. "While some countries in Central Europe and the Baltic countries perform well compared to many advanced European economies thanks to a strong response to exports of goods."

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