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IMF comes up with scary warning: Covid reduces riots, but sensational developments expected during end of pandemic

IMF comes up with scary warning: Covid reduces riots, but sensational

Most of the fatalities occurred in the heart of the city, more poor workers living in scandalous conditions, pulled to Paris by the Industrial Revolution.

The spread of the disease increased tensions in social classes, as the rich blamed the poor for the spread of the disease and the poor thought they were being poisoned. Enmity and anger quickly turned to the unpopular King.

The burial of General Lamarque - a pandemic victim and defender of popular causes - sparked a major anti-government demonstration in the barricaded streets: scenes also immortalized in Victor Hugo's novel Les Miserables.

Historians have argued that the epidemic's interaction with pre-existing tensions was a major cause of what came to be known as the Paris Uprising of 1832, which in turn could explain subsequent government repression and public revolt in the French capital in the 19th century. of the 19th.

Parallelism with the times we are living in

A recent letter from IMF staff uses an index based on press coverage of social unrest to create a Reported Index of Social Unrest. This ensures a steady monthly mass of social unrest for 130 countries from 1985 to date.

Using this index, the IMF staff study finds that countries with the most frequent and severe epidemics also experienced greater turmoil on average.

During and immediately after a pandemic, social ills in the form of riots may not show up quickly. Indeed, humanitarian crises are likely to hamper the communication and transportation needed to organize large-scale protests.

Moreover, public opinion can favor cohesion and solidarity in these times. In some cases, current regimes can take advantage of an emergency to consolidate power and suppress dissent.

The COVID-19 experience is consistent with this historical model, so far. In fact, the number of major riot events around the world has dropped to its lowest level in almost five years.

Përjashtime të dukshme përfshijnë Shtetet e Bashkuara dhe Libanin, por edhe në këto raste, protestat më të mëdha lidhen me çështje që mund të përkeqësohen, por jo të shkaktuara drejtpërdrejt nga COVID-19.

Por, duke parë përtej pasojave të menjëhershme, rreziku i trazirave sociale rritet në një periudhë më të gjatë. Duke përdorur informacionin mbi llojet e trazirave, studimi i stafit të FMN përqendrohet në formën që trazirat zakonisht marrin pas një epidemie.

Kjo analizë tregon se, me kalimin e kohës, rreziku i trazirave dhe demonstratave antiqeveritare rritet.

Për më tepër, studimi gjen prova të rritjes së rrezikut të një krize të madhe qeveritare – një ngjarje që kërcënon të rrëzojë qeverinë dhe që zakonisht ndodh në dy vitet pas një epidemie të rëndë.

Nëse historia është një parashikuese, trazirat mund të rishfaqen ndërsa pandemia lehtësohet.

Threats may be greater when the crisis exposes or exacerbates past problems, such as lack of trust in institutions, poor governance, poverty, or inequality.